Singapore population to hit 6.5million in 2015

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Singapore population to hit 6.5million in 2015

May 4, 2010 Leave a comment Go to comments

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” – Prof. Albert Bartlett.

(If you haven’t watch Prof. Albert Bartlett‘s video before, click on the link. )

The 6.5 million population “planning parameter” was introduced somewhere in 2006/07. Using the population figures from 2007 to 2009, our population has been growing annually at about 4.25% in the same period.

“But the population “planning parameter” (of 6.5 million) remains unchanged.” – Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan, 8 March 2010 in Parliament.

Since the “planning parameter” remains unchanged, assuming there will be no major fatal catastrophes and foreigners still find Singapore attractive, our population is projected to hit 6.4 million somewhere in 2015 in just 9 years, with an overall increase of about 2 million.

“The Government does not track the type of properties rented, purchased or owned by new citizens. As a policy, we do not distinguish between indigenous and new citizens. Our commitment in housing is to provide sufficient and affordable flats for first-time Singaporean homebuyers, whether new citizens or otherwise.”- The Minister of State for National Development (Ms Grace Fu Hai Yien) (for the Minister for National Development), when asked by Mr Terry Lee, 22 February 2010 in Parliament, titled “Increase in New Citizens”.

“PRs make up “only” one in five resale flat buyers and have minimal impact on resale prices.” – Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan, March 2010, in Parliament.

“The overall objective is to make sure housing prices do not outstrip real economy… in that sense what we try to do is make sure prices don’t go up faster than incomes and make sure prices don’t go down or crash. And that’s the reason why we target NOT the real demand. The fundamental objective of HDB housing is owner occupation and long-term investment.” - Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan, 14 March 2010, Channelnewasia “Talking Point”.

Without tracking the housing needs of new citizens and without targeting real demand, I cannot see how prices will correct to healthier levels should immigration policies continue, even while countries in Europe continue to go bankrupt. Should this growth rate continue, are we going to see PRs making up one in four, one in three or half the resale flat buyers?

8.8million in 2023? (If you haven’t watch Prof. Albert Bartlett‘s video before, click on the link.)

The doubling time of annual growth rate of 4.25% is about 16.4 years. In other words, assuming the factors and growth rate remain constant, our population will be doubled in 2023 to about 8.8 million, from 4.4 million at the end of 2006. The likelihood of this scenario happening is very small because worker unions would have gone on strike long ago and needy Singaporeans would be staying in cages. However, should contributing factors and growth rate remain unchanged, this is what will happen in 2023.